Swine flu and the implications for developing countries

[Ida Horner]

On my last vist to Uganda (May 09) swine flu was a fairly recent virus but I noticed that folk at Entebbe airport were taking all manner of precautions. I heard recently that some arrivals with suspected swine flu were sent off for tests etc. I am certain that this is not enough in itself to protect folk from swine flu.

Developing countries are still grappling with all manner of diseases like Malaria and TB and wonder therefore how they would cope with a swine flu pandemic.

I would be interested in others views and thoughts here regarding this.

How will this impact businesses that operate in developing countries?

Will business owners perhaps be in a position to provide tamiflu etc?

[David McNaught]

So far the flu does not seem particularly dangerous at least in the UK (where I'm from), with the majority of confirmed cases being mild and recovery has been easy & quick.

Those most at risk are apparently young children, old folk, those with an inhibited immune system (due to medication or HIV) & pregnant women.

I guess anyone with a significant illness like those you've mentioned (Malaria, TB) will be weakened and at more risk from the Flu, so the impact would likely be more severe in countries where these diseases & HIV are prevalent. (can any doctors verify this?)

Of course if the flu becomes widespread in any country, there will be an impact on the number of people who are able to work. Relative to richer countries where generous sick pay is the norm, are workers in developing countries more likely to go to work while ill out of necessity? If so, this could help the virus spread quickly at work places.

Demand for Tamiflu will only grow if the pandemic becomes more severe. Now Cipla are making a generic version of Tamiflu, which the WHO say is as effective as Tamiflu. Hopefully this will ease any supply constraints, but any spike in the virus could cause demand to rocket and make it difficult and expensive to get hold of the drugs. If business owners have the ability to access it when their workers cannot, it could pay dividends by allowing their workforce to lose less days off to flu.

Hopefully not too many people will take advantage of the 'business opportunity' of flogging fake Tamiflu to those worried about flu!

[Ida Horner]

Yes here in the UK things are not as abd as the media would have us believe, and that appears to have caused a degree of panic amongst people.

Most developing countries woudl not have access to social/welfare benefits so such a pandemic would be detrimental to families and businesses

I gatehr by looking at my SPAM box the selling of fake Tamiflu has started;-)